Letters - 19 July 2013
From population to creed
Population
With reference to occasional correspondence on population (14 and 21 June), there has been a disturbing development.
A UN report, World Population Prospects: the 2012 revision, has revised projections for 2050. Whereas the medium-variant projection of nine billion for that year has been uncritically accepted up to now, the report now puts this at 9.6 billion, thereafter increasing to 10.9 billion by 2100. And this is only the medium projection.
UN projections make assumptions about the uptake of family planning, which have not been met in many developing countries. They have been constantly revised upwards. As well as the medium projections there are high and low projections based on the assumption that families will have an average of half a child more or less than assumed in the medium case. UN does not predict which of these outcomes is the more likely.
A recent paper by the Royal Society, Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided? names the two threats as consumption and population growth. This is serious, Friends, and we should be paying attention to it.
The UN press release with the increased figures is on http://bit.ly/WPP2012Revision
Roger Plenty
I was greatly heartened to read a recent article by Danny Dorling, the superlative 2012 Salter lecturer, in which he noted that the rate of population growth has in fact been falling steadily since the 1970s. Although it is true that the human population is still likely to reach ten billion by the end of the century, he is confident that that figure is a maximum and thereafter numbers will start to fall. If there is a ‘population time-bomb’, according to Danny Dorling, it is probably the growing age of the human race.
He is not the only one arguing that the planet can readily support that size of population – if the biggest consumers (who are a small minority) can learn to moderate their appetites. But even on this point he feels more confident than some others of a positive change.
I hope Friends will find this as reassuring as I did. Incidentally, he has just published a book on the subject, called Population 10 Billion.
Stevie Krayer
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